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The Dynamic Trader Forex Blog

Friday, 30 January 2009

Review of Pound Aussie

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

Tonight I am going to review the GBPAUD from last evenings blog so as to show what patience can do. As mentioned, I waited for the news which was Australian Dollar positive but had already been accounted for in the market and price just continued to rise, so my entry never got signalled. However, as of todays movement it looks as if we are going to close above the value index on the daily timeframe and so an ESLT on the BOB could be applied but be cautious as we have tagged a strong former support level now acting as resistance on the weekly which is showing a possible bearish flag formation and the daily is approaching a very good fib cluster level, so at the very least we should have a possible pullback which will give good returns if you are ready, as we have high impact news out again on this pair on Monday but this time on the GBP. Once again I am doing my analysis on this pair on the 4 hour timeframe, chart below.

As always, please do your own analysis, before taking any trades.














Charts courtesy of TradeStation.

Once again, good luck with all your trading endeavours.

Clayton Farnworth.

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Down Down Under

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = AUD : 60min Charts (Posted Below)

Long Term Trend = Down : Short Term Trend = Down

Hello everyone and thank you for staying with me this week, What a good week for all if you have been following the blog. If I can recap the week for you.

We started slow with the AUD having a bank holiday Monday, which gave us time to assess the chosen cross and review it's charts.

We highlighted 2 trend lines on the 240 chart which gave us a decreasing triangle coming to its squeeze. From here we dropped a time frame to 60mins looking for a BOB which delivered with the trend at 1900hrs Wed. We then used ESLT to enter the trade.

If your stop was not too tight you may well be STILL in this trade as I write the blog. Today we have dropped 218 pips till now 0130hrs. If you are still in the trade please manage it accordingly.

Since the BOB, we have passed through the retail index and followed a uniformed parallel trend with one pull back before continuing down in the current parallel trend.

We also spent some time recapping on "Stochastic s" as an indicator in some detail. If you were to draw a vertical line from "Stochastic s line crossover" to "price" you would see how stochastic s works for you.

I wish you all a great weekend, and with the weather forecast as snow and freezing conditions, it may be warmer with Javid & Anne in Iceland.

Enjoy, speak to you Sunday.

















Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal

Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Thursday, 29 January 2009

Pound Aussie

Good Evening Dynamic traders,

Tonight I am looking at a big moving currency pair and therefore on a smaller timeframe, to try and capture some quicker profits.
My timing for trading is a little out of sync with what you have been taught by our Mentors, but for me at present these type of pairs provide good opportunities and being as I am at my computor now I can monitor the trades closely.
The currency pairis the GBPAUD on a 4 hour timeframe chart and at present is standing at a fib reversal with an OB and resistance zone just above, and nearing a fib level for the wave count.

I have not got confirmation yet for an entry although the one hour chart is showing OB Stochastic but in AdvancedGet is showing a false bar and we are nearing the first of the good '00' which are in the resistance zone.

We have medium impact news out very soon in Australia which could affect the Dollar so I will assess the situation after this for my trading.

As always, please do your own analysis for any trades.














Charts courtesy of TradeStation.

Good luck with all your analysing.

Clayton Farnworth.

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I can see clearly now !

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = AUD : 60min Chart (Posted Below)

Long Term Trend = Down : Short Term Trend = Down

Hi everybody, I have dropped another time frame for tonight's chart and have kept last nights trend lines in place, with stochastic s as our featured indicator.

What do you see ?

What do you not see ?

We have what looks like an up trend on price between the trend lines, which has passed through the retail index.

Our trend lines have come to the end of their squeeze on this time scale and after a break of the top trend line we were presented with a false breakout.

This has been followed by a sharp drop in the price and a BOB through the lower trend line which would have triggered us in the trade using our ESLT. As I write we would be out of pocket
as price has struggled to continue down as we battle with the retail index for right of way.

If we break through this confrontation a move down looks likely as we look for further confirmation.

Stochastic s fast line is below the signal line pointing downwards since 1900hrs last night.

RSI is below the 50 after failing to pass the 65 and is pointing down.

MACD has recently crossed the zero line with a wide gap between itself and the signal line.

As always please do your own analysis before placing your trades and use a stop and remember we have 3 heavy duty news items today on the USD. Beware !




Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal

Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Wednesday, 28 January 2009

Aussie Loonie

Good evening Dynamic Traders,

After seeing the e-mail from Javid and Anne, may i reiterate what the other blogger contributors have written by thanking the readers of the blogs for their kind words to us which is very nice indeed and wills us on to try and keep being of assistance if we can for anyone who is interested.

Tonights chart is of the AUDCAD, which has been falling from July to October, retraced to our higher breather level by early January( which actually closed above this but didn't trigger an entry with ESLT on the BOB) and since then has been coming down again, giving a possible bearish flag break on the weekly timeframe.

On the daily chart below we have re-entered the sell zone of the DD whilst RSI is below 50.

I am watching the 4 hour timeframe for confimation but will enter by our rules of DD alone, if it goes that way tomorrow.

As always please do your own analysis, and always manage any entered trades well.















Charts courtesy of TradeStation.

Good Luck,

Clayton Farnworth.

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Tie the kangaroo down, sport !

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = AUD : 240 Chart (Posted Below)

Long Term Trend = Down : Short Term Trend = Down

I would like to thank all of you reading this blog, for the kind words recieved with regards your appreciation in its content. The 4 bloggers all have their own styles, which gives a wider picture on the markets. It is good to hear feedback as it makes our commitment to the blogs more worthwhile. Why else would I be typing at 0230hrs.

Last night we looked at Stochastics in some details and I hope you all had time to take that in. We also mentioned that confleunce was to go up and todays bar harvested 150 pips. Well done to those that followed the blog and carried out their own analysis.

Tonight I have dropped a timeframe to give you a different view on the stochastics indicator. You will see as I write the fast line has crossed above the signal line, pointing towards more strenght to the bullish side.

Remember that the trend is down and we have had 4 lower lows since 13th January. To trade against the trend is not recommended especialy if you are still learning.

MACD and RSI are bullish, however we do have the retail index not far above us (around 100pips) which will act as resistance.

I have drawn two trend lines on the chart where you can see the price squeeze is running out of space and a possible BOB may trigger later.

We have key news for the USD and the NZD today.

Happy trading.
















Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal

Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Tuesday, 27 January 2009

Canadian Dollar Yen

Good Evening Dynamic Traders ,

Tonights chart is of the CADJPY.

This pair looks a little indecisive at present, but keeps breaking into our breather zone with spinning tops, after a big move. The previous swing low is at a major support level, however AdvancedGet is showing a false bar in Get Stochastic and we have the MOB and a cluster below, and a good RN in there too.

I shall keep a close eye on this pair for a good entry if it comes, by waiting for my confluences on the lower timeframes and then take the appropriate action.

News is out throughout the rest of the week on this pair.
















Charts courtesy of TradeStation.

Clayton Farnworth.

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Stochastics

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = AUD : Day Chart (Posted Below)

Long Term Trend = Down : Short Term Trend = Down

Stochastics

Momentum Oscillator comes in Fast, Slow and Full. Slow is the commonly used one.

%K = Fast line
%D = Signal line ( 5day Simple MA of %K)

Measured 0-100, 80+= Upper (Over Bought), -20= Lower (Over Sold)
Break below 80 Line = Sell
Break above 20 Line = Buy

Bigger the distance between %K and %D = Bigger the momentum

Can be used for Price Convergence / Divergence like MACD

Can give false readings, Advanced Get will display signal for false reading.

Best used with other indicators for conformation

Look at the chart below to see where Fast line has crossed above and below the signal line with relevance to price. Blue = Above and Red = Below. Powerful signals ?

We have the FAST line moved above the signal line and crossing the 20 line pointing up. Is this the start of a move up ?

RSI is pointing up but below the midline.

MACD line is turning, however is below the zero line and we have convergence with price.

Where will we go to ????

Please do your own analysis before placing a trade and USE a stop.

Watch for Major news items tomorrow on AUD, EUR, USD and GBP Beware !
















Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal

Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Monday, 26 January 2009

Pound New Zealand Dollar

Good evening Dynamic Traders,

Tonights chart below is on the daily timeframe, and is of the GBPNZD.

At present it is displaying what could be a bullish flag pattern, but it is in a downward trending scenario so be sure to plan a entry with caution, as it is inbetween breathers for a continuation to the downside. Either way your ESLT on the BOB. can assist here, but as I am writing the stochastic fast line is turning up but be sure to wait for your confimations as we have high impact news out tomorrow. Also at present the hourly chart is in the throws of some form of downward movement.

As always please do your own analysis before taking any trades.















Charts courtesy of TradeStation.

Good luck for any trades.

Clayton Farnworth.

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Wizard of AUD

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = AUD : Day Chart (Posted Below)

Long Term Trend = Down : Short Term Trend = Down

I hope you had a great week end and have a clear mind for the forthcoming trading week.

As it has been a while, I thought we would use the AUD cross this week to further our education and I intend to look at another indicator in greater depth so that we get a real understanding in what it shows us, after the feedback received from the MACD insight.

I would like you to look at your different time frame charts to accustom your self with the trends as listed above and also look at support, resistance as well as RN's. If we plan our analysis on the Daily chart as shown below, we can move down a time frame to get a more accurate entry for our trades.

What do we see ?

We have a major support at a RN which could be tested again.

We have RSI under 50 pointing down.

We have MACD below the signal line and below the zero line.

EMA's not stacked in line as of yet, which would confirm continuation of down trend.

Trend lines are giving us a decreasing triangle, however as it is a day chart, we have some days to go before we feel the squeeze. Support from the trend line below takes down to 63200.

Get a feel of your charts by using the information above and tomorrow we will look more closely at an indicator.

















Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal


Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Sunday, 25 January 2009

Possible H & S

Good afternoon Dynamic Traders,

The chart I want ot look at today is the EURCAD.

The weekly timeframe has an RSI divergence, amoungst other confluences, but if you go down to the daily chart below, you can see we have had a possible bearish flag pattern break and are now completing a possible H & S pattern.

Whilst doing your own analysis, you will also notice that it is in your DD parameters, but does at present stand at a fib. reversal, but is not OS in Stochastics and RSI is below 50.

I will take my entry in accordance with the daily price action, but would you please ensure that you do your own analysis before taking any trades.















Charts courtesy of TradeStation.

Enjoy trading.

Clayton Farnworth.




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Friday, 23 January 2009

Greed, Emotion & Fear

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = EUR : 240min Chart (Posted Below)

Long Term Trend = Down : Short Term Trend = Down

Greed, Emotion and Fear.

Have you experienced any of these whilst trading ? If you are like me and most other traders it will be ALL three, and sometimes at the same time. These are three things we have to learn to control and master in order to be a successful trader.

Greed. If I can get 30,50,100,200 pips then I can get more, just a little more, just this time !

Emotion. Why did it go up or down, I will get it back, I am angry now, I am invincible.

Fear. Can you pull the trigger ? Oh no it's going against me, I might lose again.

I am sure these are phrases you have all experienced, do you want the answer ?

DISCIPLINE, HAVE YOU GOT IT ?

We are at the end of our trading week and what a week, Those that have followed the blog should have picked up plenty of pips and well done to you all. Yesterday was our quite'st day as we finished with a doji candle on the RN which has played a vital part of the week.

Today the RN is your key to the door, with entry using ESLT on a BOB. RSI remains under 50 pointing down and stachastics lie between the 20/80. MACD is above the signal line, however below the zero line. Remember the trend is DOWN.

Please do your own analysis before entering a trade, check the NEWS and use a STOP.

Have a great weekend, and I will speak to you on Sunday night.















Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal


Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Thursday, 22 January 2009

Euro against Aussie Dollar

Good evening Dynamic Traders,

On the EURAUD tonight, we have the daily trend still upbut range bound, and as you can see from the four hour chart below we have an even tighter range and the RSI is above fifty, so I am waiting for my break to use our trusty ESLT on the BOB, which could happen early next week due to the high impact news out on both the Euro and the Austalian dollar on Tuesday, however there is other high impact news out before this on the GBP which could also affect this pair so be on your guard and beware of false breakouts, so wait for your signalsa and as ever 'Trading equals Patience' so let the market tell you what it wants to do as it is always right.

Please ensure to do your own analysis for any trades and good luck with every one of them.















Charts courtesy of TradeStation.

Clayton Farnworth.

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Party's Over

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = EUR : 240min Chart (Posted Below)

Long Term Trend = Down : Short Term Trend = Down

Our colleagues on the other side of the pond have been enjoying a long weekend, with Monday's Martin Luther King Day and yesterdays party into the early hours celebrating the new president Barrack Obama. Today they maybe struggling with a hangover, so beware in the markets and we have USD unemployment figures.

I did mention last night that it was predictable of the market to take back after it gave so much. I pointed to the RN we broke through as support becoming resistance and that is exactly what happened. As I write we are still malingering around the RN and depending on your time frame are indecisive as to which side of it we should be on.

As "Dynamic Traders" we stand back and look at the bigger picture to get a fuller idea of "Trend and Momentum". So tonight I want to look at the 4hr chart and find any confluences.

You will again see the trend lines I have drawn, with price movement remaining within and making a downwards trend. You will observe that even though the trend is down, we do have upward movement that lasts 2-4 days, but we are making lower lows.

RSI remains under 50 and is pointing down.

Stochastics are OS but giving false readings within Advanced Get.

EMA's remain nicely stacked and MACD turned up at 1600hrs yesterday.

As I write the current bar is 2.5 hrs in and currently showing a doji just below the RN and midway between the trend lines. The current bar and previous wicks high, have both touched a Fib retracement level and a return to the downtrend after a breather could be on the cards.

If we get a BOB above the RN, make sure you use ESLT for entry as a false reading could be likely and you would be going against the trend.

As always do your own analysis before entering a trade and place a stop.















Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal


Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Wednesday, 21 January 2009

Pound Yen

Good evening Dynamic Traders,

Spoilt for choice tonight with all the formations on the dailys.

Tonights chart I am going to keep a close eye on for tomorrow is the GBPJPY. Todays candle formation is a good gravestone doji which fell to a good figure, but as you can see, previous support was breached yesterday with a BOB and depending on your stance could have triggered a short today but if managed well would have given very nice profits. However with todays price action ,I am waiting for some form of reversal, with clues coming from my confluences, but as it stands, we are at yet another good figure. The lower timeframe has a tram track formation, and short term convergence, with an OS Stochastic. Plan your entry well as we are heavily against the trend.

As always, please do a complete analysis for yourself before entering any trades.

















Charts courtesy of TradeStation.

Enjoy your trading,

Clayton Farnworth.

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Plenty for everyone.

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = EUR : Day & 60min Chart (Posted Below)

Long Term Trend = UP : Short Term Trend = Down

What a day !

A new President, another bank's shares collapsing and 214 pips available to cash in on from last nights blog. How did you do ?

I am sure most of you would have been tucked up in bed when the BOB appeared at 0400hrs in the morning.

After such BIG moves today in the market, do not be surprised if the market tries to take some back today.

Both the Day chart and the 60min chart are showing strong down trends, so let us not get involved in anything against the trend. On the day chart we can still see price between the two trend lines with perhaps support @ the lower line around 127500. If the market as said, takes some back we have resistance @ 13000

Stochastics are showing OB on both time frames with no false signals.

MACD has its line below zero on both time frames and on the 60min chart, the MACD line has crossed above the signal, indicating a possible change in the current trend.

Key news on the Euro tomorrow, beware !

Always do your own analysis before entering a trade and manage it once triggered.





























Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal


Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

Labels:

Tuesday, 20 January 2009

Still Down Under

Good evening Forex Traders,

Tonights chart is one for you to keep a close eye on with the AUDNZD.

At present, it has tagged the 123786 on the daily timeframe,and is at former resistance with an OB Stochastic, although in AdvancedGet it has a false bar on the Get Stochastic, indicating further upside.

On the 4 hour chart below at the time of writing we can see that the previous candle is a doji and has hit a significant figure.

The RSI is diverging and is pulling back from OB territory.

Please as always do your own analysis, wait for your quota of confluences which are acruing as I write, and plan your entry. If you do enter any trade, manage it well .















Charts courtesy of TradeStation.

Good luck with all your analysis and trading,

Clayton Farnworth.

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Into Euro -pe !

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = EUR : Monthly & Day Chart (Posted Below)

Long Term Trend = UP : Short Term Trend = Down

With the Tories bringing back the former Chancellor as part of the Shadow cabinet, Kenneth Clarke has opposing views on the Euro than the present Tory bench and in the mist of yesterdays financial debates, I thought it just to select the EUR as this weeks chart.

Before I start the analysis, I see Javid also has been adding another member to his back bench of FULL TIME traders. Welcome Saba and congratulations on your decision to join the bench, I am sure Javid is trying to get into Europe so lets look at what is happening.

The 1st chart is the Monthly, which if you look at the candles, there is a significant change in their size since August and alike to other topics, in Forex "Size Does Matter". The larger the bars the more chance of gathering some profits. Having got a feel for the trend and direction lets move to the Daily chart.















We can see that we have had a deep pull-back from the down trend towards the value index and have been heading down again since 18th December. You will also notice that price has kept within the trend lines drawn on the chart and at present is confronting a RN.

If we break through the RN we have some 650 pips before we find previous support.

MACD has crossed under the signal line and recently crossed the zero line, indicating bear rather than bull.

The 20EMA returning under the 60EMA would also confirm a down trend.

RSI is under 50 and pointing down.

There is a number of confluence of events to be patient and use the ESLT on a BOB of the RN if it happens. Use a smaller timeframe to identify entry more accurate.

As always do your own analysis before entering any trade and check for news items relevant to your cross.
















Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal


Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Monday, 19 January 2009

Back down Under

Good Evening Dynamic Traders,

May I congratulate Saba, on the sister blog, with her move to a full Trading career, I would like to wish her every success with her chosen route, and sincerely hope that she finds financial freedom in the very near future. Go Girl ! ! !

Apologies to readers of the blog for not posting yesterday evening, but was again travelling back up north after having a mentoring class with Javid, and was too late to start analysis with an early morning looming.

Tonight I thought I would bring your attention to yet another possible bearish flag which could lead to a continuation of the downtrend. At present confluences are building, and could lead to a move shortly. The daily has got a nice doji forming, although as always when I am updating, the candle is not complete.

The 4 hourly has hit a fib. breather and cluster level, although the higher breather is clustered too, and both are in proximity to RN's.

I shall let you do your own analysis on this pair as normal, but please note that the RSI is below fifty, and that todays candle has hit a former S and R zone, however please be aware that we are at a RN at the moment, so your ESLT could be used for a break above the zone if we go that way or of the trendline on the lower timeframes for a break south, either way work it into your entry plan.

















Charts courtesy of TradeStation.

Good luck for your trading week ahead,

Clayton Farnworth.

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Thursday, 15 January 2009

What's going Down ?

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = GBP : Day Chart (Posted Below)

Long Term Trend = Down : Short Term Trend = Up

Where does the time go ? I write for the last time this week and will not speak again till Monday evening as Monday is a holiday in the USA. I will bring to a close our week following the GBP and the insight into the MACD.

Early Shorting profits were clawed back in the afternoon with the Bulls fighting back. We have not yet made a lower low on the price and are finding resistance at the RN support.

If we break through this support, I suggest those readers who have done the webinar training to use ESLT on the relevant BOB. We are still trading between the trend lines indicated on the chart below and after bouncing off support, we have plenty of air above us.

Please note the obvious "Convergence" on Price vs MACD and with the moving averages remaining constant in the downtrend, we would have to wait for the MACD line to cross the zero line to indicate the possible change of direction.

I hope you have been profitable over the last week in your trading and learnt something in your training. As always please ensure you do your own analysis before placing a trade.
















Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal

Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Euro New Zealand Dollar

Good evening Dynamic Traders,

I hope your forex trading is going well this week and a pair that you could well consider is the EURNZD.

At of todays candle, although it needs to be completed, but looks like it could well end up being a nice big doji with plenty of wick. It stands at a possible DT, but a good RN lies just north, which also is clustering with fibonacci numbers on both the daily and weekly timeframes, together with the MOB in AdvancedGet.

However patience is needed here as ususal for confirmation as the smaller timeframe to these is looking like a decline could be imminent, as we have hit yet another fib on this timeframe together with a diverging RSI.

Whatever happens, we can be ready for entries either way, for day or swing trades, if we adhere to our Trading plans we created during our mentoring classes and webinars.

As always please do your own analysis and wait for your entry confirmations, but be on your toes.




















Charts courtesy of TradeStation.

As the markets are closed on Saturday morning, there will be no update tomorrow as normal, but also possibly none on Sunday evening too.

Have fun trading,

Clayton Farnworth.

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The Big Squeeze, Not Freeze !

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = GBP : 60 min Chart (Posted Below)

Long Term Trend = Down : Short Term Trend = Flat

Firstly may I congratulate Hina on winning last nights competition, a job very well done, you did brilliantly , well done.

You would have got up this morning, read my blog, looked at the charts and thought "Missed It"

I mentioned on my blog that after 2 bear days we might see the bull upto the blck line I drew for you on the chart. The good news was we almost touched the line with an upmove of 213 pips. The bad news was at 0830 hrs this morning, the move had finished. So unless you are a late worker/learner you would of missed it.

Tonight I have placed the 60 min chart for you to look at. I have done this for a couple of issues. Firstly I want you to look at where MACD crosses below the signal line on the 9th January. Then 6 days later the MACD crosses below the zero line. If you check the EMA's you will see they crossed at the same time.

Since then we have had a steady decline in the price, having been in an uptrend previous. Remember we would not have these EMA's on the chart however crossing the zero line indicates possible change in the trend.

I have placed a support and resistance line on the chart, which gives us a declining triangle / flag which is being squeezed for a BOB.

Stochastics are showing OB and those from the webinar will be waiting a BOB and using ESLT as your entry to the trade. Remember the stronger trend is down.

As always, do your own analysis before entering tyour trades.
















Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal

Trade with Passion & have Fun
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1VgWdcQM&feature=related

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Wednesday, 14 January 2009

TESTER

Good evening Forex traders ,

Firstly may I congratulate Hina on a job very well done on the fantastic competition win, you did brilliantly , well done.

Tonight I am going to deviate a little and put up some analysis on another way I trade for continuations.

The chart for tonight is the AUDNZD but please be aware it is on the smaller time frame of one hour, not only will this keep my SL small for this tester, but hopefully will give me quicker profits too!

At present it is displaying a possible bullish flag and has almost tagged a breather level. The RSI indicator is declining but still above 50, and this candle is only about ten minutes from closing and looks to be forming a possible spinning top.

With it being on a smaller timeframe I shall monitor this very closely.

As always please do your own analysis for any trade.



















Charts courtesy of TradeStation.
Good luck with your trading.
Clayton Farnworth.

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Peep oh, we can see you !

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = GBP : Daily Chart (Posted Below)

Long Term Trend = Down : Short Term Trend = Down

I have continued to leave the EMA 12 & 26 on the chart so you can continue to see their movement in relation to the MACD line. I am sorry the chosen time frame is not showing a cross of the EMA which would happen after the MACD line crossing the zero line.

Whilst I do not use the 12 & 26 EMA to trade with, you will see how these help identify a trend. You may have your own chosen EMA's however the principle is the same.

Identifying the trend should be a 30 second decision, we are looking for the long, intermediate and short term trend. For Long term look towards your Monthly/Weekly charts, Intermediate your Day/60 min charts & Short term your 15 min/5 min charts. Stand back from your screen, look at your moving averages for guidance and decide if the trend is Up, Down or Oscilating ?

Go on make a decision, I dare you.

Last night I mentioned having some 400 pips below us till the RN, Todays red candle was 363 of them. I managed to get 230 pips on my trade, How did you do ?

Looking at todays chart below, I have left the Yellow trending channels mentioned yesterday, that we are currently trading between at present. You will observe a further two black horizontal lines, with the bottom one passing as support to yesterdays bar ???????????

I want you to stand back from your screen and concentrate at the chart pattern between the Yellow trending lines, What do you see ?

Where price broke the top yellow bar we have a "Head" with a "Shoulder" on either side !

If you had placed the bottom black line paralell to the bottom yellow line, and up to the start of the left shoulder as indicated, how strange yesterdays bar found support at that point.

I have placed the top black bar at the top of the previous bar to the start of the left shoulder, after a large move down we in general have a retracement.

Those from the webinars could confirm this by using the 2nd Jan to start your 123886, with convergence !

Will price retrace to the black line ? Interesting, let's wait and see. Price is up 79 pips as I write.
















Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal


Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

Labels:

Tuesday, 13 January 2009

Canadian Dollar Japanese Yen

Good evening Dynamic Forex Traders,

The chart tonight is of the CADJPY.

I am keeping a close eye on this pair tonight for an entry , as I am expecting at least a bounce, if not some form of reversal, although it has been in a downtrend for a while. I will have to be vigilant however, and time my entry to keep a tight stop, because it looks like it is also going to close in the DD area. My confluences are such, that, together with the fibonacci cluster area at present and the close proximity of the RN, I shall await confirmation on my lowest timeframe.

Please notice the nearly OS Stochastic, and also in AdvancedGet we are at the T.J.'s Elipse.

As always, please do your own analysis before taking any trades.

















Charts courtesy of TradeStation.
Always enjoy your trading.
Clayton Farnworth.


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The Trend is your FRIEND

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = GBP : Daily Chart (Posted Below)

Long Term Trend = Down : Short Term Trend = Down

I have continued to leave the EMA 12 & 26 on the chart so you can continue to see their movement in relation to the MACD line.

Some of you would have had a handsome reward of pips today with this cross providing a significant bear bar. With the moving averages having NOT crossed, the downward trend has continued and whilst not as steep as earlier in the chart, it is still providing lower lows.

I have placed some trend lines on the chart, from which you see the cross ranging between since 11th November. With the trend as our friend and heading down we have had 2-3 opportunities to explore possible 123886 within the range.

Whilst the MACD line continues to show convergence, it remains in Bear territory and any upward movement is a breather in price before a further lower low is established.

With a RN around current support, this would need to be broken for further weakness to be achieved. We have some 400 pips below us before reaching support at the bottom trend line.

Please do your own analysis before entering a trade, and if the trend is your friend, then your stop loss is family !
















Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal


Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Monday, 12 January 2009

Japanese Yen

Good evening Forex Traders,

I hope your trading is going well this week, and if you are in any positions, you are managing them in accordance with your 'Trading Plan'.

Tonights chart is one to keep a close eye on, the USDJPY.

The weekly chart has hit a similar position to where the daily chart could be heading, that is our 123886. At the moment the daily is a step up from this, but with the nearly OS Stochastic and the numerous confluences, including the convergences that position could soon be reached, which also coincides with the RN.

The fudged trendline on the chart below has been broken, but price has now retraced back below. Wait for your confluences to all tie in and execute your trade accordingly.

As always please do your own analysis before taking any trades.


















Charts courtesy of TradeStation.
Good luck with your analysis and trading.
Clayton Farnworth.

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Cable on MACD

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = GBP : Daily Chart (Posted Below)

Long Term Trend = Down : Short Term Trend = Down

Have you printed your News Items ?

Hope you all had a great weekend and are refreshed for another exciting week in the markets. I hope you get your pips this week as easy as United got the 3pts from Chelsea.

With the interest rate cut last week and not much effect having taken place in this cross, I thought we would follow it's progress this week.

To improve our education on trading the Forex, I am going to concentrate on the MACD indicator over the week.

MACD stands for "Moving Average Convergence Divergence" and the settings you should be using are 12,26,9. Like most indicators MACD is a lagging indicator, however unlike most others it can give us a powerful forecasting on price in the future.

We have 3 parts to MACD, The MACD line, The Signal line and the histogram.

The MACD line is the difference of the 12 & 26 EMA.

The signal line is the 9 EMA of the MACD line.

The histogram is the difference between the MACD line and the 9 EMA

The MACD line above zero is bullish and below is bearish. When it crosses the zero line we have no difference between the 12 & 26 EMA.

To illustrate this I have placed the 12 & 26 EMA on our chart and on the 2 occasions MACD has attempted to cross above the zero line, you will notice the EMA's on the chart are on both times touching. (Red Arrows)Whilst I can not show you on our chart, the signal line usually crosses the MACD line 6-7 days prior to the EMA's crossing.

When the signal line crosses over the MACD line, the histogram crosses the zero line. (Blue Arrows) If the histogram is positive, MACD line is above the signal line and when negative the MACD line is below the signal line.

The MACD's strongest quality for us is Convergence / Divergence with the price, indicating a possible change of the trend. (Green Arrows)

In summary from our Daily chart, We have a down trend for some time giving lower lows, yet the MACD line is showing convergence with price over the recent lower lows. We have the signal line crossing below the MACD line, which itself is on the verge of crossing the zero line and into a Bullish zone.

Are we seeing a possible change of trend ?

Will price bounce off the EMA's ? or give a further low ?

Do we have a confluence of events ?
















Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal


Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Sunday, 11 January 2009

POUND AUSSIE

Good evening Dynamic Traders,

For the start of the new forex trading week I have got the GBPAUD. However , as this pair is very volatile I am showing this on the 4 hour and 1 hour timeframes.

Firstly, although it has tagged a fib . breather level on the 4 hour chart , it is in close proximity to the V.I. with a fib cluster just above as well , which is also near the R.N. , and the RSI is above fifty but less than seventy. Also, on this timeframe in AdvancedGet , we have an OB Stochastic with a false bar , thus indicating a possible trend and therefore the possibility of a push north.
















On the hourly chart below , we are in a consolidation zone awaiting a breakout, and the Stochastic here is in an upward trending position, and if we do our fibonnacci on this we can find that we have a good ext. cluster just above the V.I. of the higher timeframe.
If you then go to your 15 min. timeframe to get your entry, you can see that a 123786 bottom was just missed , however that could change looking at its position at the moment.

High impact news directly affecting this pair is Wednesday.

As always please do your own analysis before taking trades and due to its high volatility, it is important to get your entry correct, so use your Trading Plan rules to the letter and wait for your pre determined entry with an already known SL.
If this goes the other way before triggering you , use your break of support with your ESLT to enter. As Javid always said, 'it does not matter what the market does, just be ready for it' . Remember , we put the odds in our favour , but the market is always right.

















Charts courtesy of TradeStation.
Good luck with your trading.
Clayton Farnworth.

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Friday, 9 January 2009

Swiss Secrets

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = CHF : Daily Chart (Posted Below)

Long Term Trend = Up : Short Term Trend = Down

As we come to the end of an exciting first week of this years trading, I want to summarise where we are or going with the CHF before we leave this cross.

I do suggest you keep the CHF on your watch list and be patient whilst we await the right set up for entry of your trade.

With the longer trend going up, we had a double top between 21 Nov and 5 Dec before falling away to support of a RN and then bouncing to a Fib retracement level .500, retail index and further RN.

In the shorter term with stochastics turning down from the OB area, weakness could take us towards testing the previous support and RN in what could be called a triple bottom.

Those who have had the mentoring sessions and webinars will recognise an oppertunity for a Fib123786886 which will require patientce for set up.

For those with an artistic eye, shorter term gains could be had with the candlestick pattern of the letter M which also takes price down towards suport.

As always do your own analysis before entering the trade and ALWAYS use a "Stop Loss"

Ask yourself before entering the trade "How much am I prepared to lose on this trade, and not how much am i going to win"

Is your decision the same ?

Have a great week end, C'mon United

















Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal

Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Thursday, 8 January 2009

USDCAD

Good evening Dynamic Traders ,

Tonights analysis is for the Loonie.On the daily chart below, the price action looks like it is about to close in the parameters of your DD technique, and because of the recent swing low( Jan 6, albeit today has not finished) you have several ways of entering this as taught by your mentoring classes and webinars, however ,do be aware of the RN , but also the distance away of the Value index which strengthens the DD.















On the 4 hour timeframe below however, we have tagged a 123886 with divergences which contradicts the DD , therefore your entry is crucial if you wish to trade this pair. I am favouring the downside push but will wait to execute the trade when my entry is confirmed with my trading rules. Patience is the key to this one, so wait for your confirmation, and as always please do your own analysis and remember about the big news items tomorrow.















Charts courtesy of TradeStation.
Good luck with your trading,
Clayton Farnworth.

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Wednesday, 7 January 2009

Short Change Swiss

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = CHF Daily Chart (Posted Below)

Long Term Trend = Up Short Term Trend = Down

Having taken 90 pips on Tuesday and mentioned that if we clear the area of "Resistance", "RN" and "Value Index" then we have clear sky above, we were pulled right back to this area of congestion yesterday (Wednesday)

Stochastic s are showing in the OB area and we could see further weakness back to a 123886 before going with the long term trend and retesting the area of congestion for a 3rd time.

MACD continues to show a continuation of the upward movement on both histogram and lines, and the early candle of today as I write is bullish.

If we retest the resistance area then a BOB with ESLT like Tuesday is advised.

Those readers whom have attended the webinars, will be aware of the techniques taught and entry positions suited to the situation. Ensure you carry out your own analysis before entering a trade.

Be aware of MAJOR news items















Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal


Thank you for your feedback

Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Austalian Dollar

Good evening Dynamic Forex Traders,

The currency for the watchlist tonight is the Australian Dollar.

The daily chart below is at a former support level which is also a fibonacci cluster area and please notice the Stochastic hooking down from the OB area, although in AdvancedGet it is showing a false bar on the Get Stochastic indicating a possible trend, but also note that the extreme candle is not the doji, and be aware of the RN below.

Also , please be aware of the possible flag on the monthly timeframe.
















The 4 hour timeframe below , has also hit the MOB in AdvancedGet, and is giving more confluences including the divergence on the RSI.
However , if this does decide to break resistance your ever faithful ESLT on the BOB can be applied.
As always , please do your own analysis , and do not chase the trade , but only enter when signalled in accordance with your mentoring , and if you do get entered , as with any position , manage it well .















Charts courtesy of TradeStation .
Good luck with your trading.
Clayton Farnworth .



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Swiss Pips
















Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal


Do you prefer the video blog or the written word ??
Let me know

Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Tuesday, 6 January 2009

EURO SWISSY FLAG TIME ?

Good evening Dynamic Traders,

Last nights post defied all the confluences but did not trigger , so if you where at your computor when the support zone was breached you could have used your ESLT to trade to the downside and congatulations if you did this.

Tonights chart is the EURCHF , and on the daily chart below we have a possible bearish flag which has a doji as the extreme candle and is in proximity to a RN and could also be forming the right shoulder of a possible H&S pattern.

If you then go down to the hourly timeframe we have a possible 123886 with your divergences in evidence , together with an OB stochastic .

Remember to plan your entry as to be in keeping with your trading style , that is either aggressive , intermediate or conservative , stick to your plan , and as always please do your own analysis .

Good luck with your trading .



















Charts courtesy of TradeStation.
Happy Trading.
Clayton Farnworth.

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Swiss Treats

Happy New Year Dynamic Traders

Apologies for no video, I had some technical problems last night, so have reverted to the written word. I hope you all had a great festive break with your families and took Javid's advice to stay OUT of the market until yesterday.

You will have seen major moves at 0800hrs GMT yesterday as traders returned to work in the city and this week we have some major news items, with the BOE deciding the interest rate on Thursday. Indications are a further reduction of possibly another 1%.

As always ensure you have printed your weekly news items and pin on the board next to your computer.

I have chosen the CHF as our 1st chart of the year, as I was looking through my basket during the break and was hit with "Convergence" staring me in the face. I then noticed a number of "Confluences" which I have listed on the chart.

Can you spot these on the chart ?

There has been a number of opportunities to enter this trade which coincide with the "Confluences" and if you are one of the webinar attendees you will easily spot your entry points.

The day chart is still showing strength in the upward move and if we move through the current "Resistance" we have clear sky above.

This cross has given near 700 pips in the last 5 trading days.

As always do your own analysis before entering a trade.















Courtesy of Advanced Get / E Signal


Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Monday, 5 January 2009

EURO AUSSIE

Hello Forex traders,

I hope you are all well after your festive break , and are now eager to put your trading skills to good use for 2009. I must apologise for not posting yesterday evening , but I was travelling home from having had a mentoring course from Javid and only arrived late due to the bad conditions on the motorways.

So , as now we can hopefully get back to normality with the markets our trading can once again start in earnest.

The first chart of 2009 I want to show is the EURAUD on the 4 hour timeframe which could be about to head upwards. As I am writing it stands at a previous support zone with a possible candle formation on this and differing timeframes , and there are also several other confluence of events for you Dynamic traders to find ranging right across your training curriculum not least divergence in the OS RSI on a lower timeframe as well as the OS RSI on this chart below, it also stands at the MOB in Advanced Get.
Plenty of confluences are present including a fib. ret. and ext. cluster and proximity to the RN , there are more but you can have your fun in finding them.

Remember to only enter when your rules allow it , and if entered manage your trades well in accordance with your plan , and be sure to look at the news items for tomorrow.

As always , please do your own analysis , and enjoy your trading .














Charts courtesy of TradeStation
Hoping you have a great day,
Clayton Farnworth.

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