A,B,C, 1, 2, 3 Simple ?

Good Evening / Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = EURUSD : Day chart below.

Hello everyone, I hope you all had a great week in the markets, it was not the best week as far as trend trading goes but not getting stopped out has its advantages, in the long run. Those of you that read and digested Tuesday's blog, I want to share with you a text book repeat of what we discussed in length. It happened on Wednesday on the DAY chart of the EUR.

I have been watching the EUR since the beginning of January due to what I read in the "Commodity Trader's Almanac 2010" Seasonal traders will know that the EUR usually heads down during the month of January, providing shorting opportunities until early mid February.

As you know the market is always right and it looked as if this common trend had happened in December, some 30 days earlier. Added to this that price was now finding comfort with the support of the VI. Early signals were that a bounce up looked the more likely, and the shorting trade was not an option, leaving the trade not at the top of my watchlist.

On the 19th January we had a BOB on the VI, remembering Tuesdays blog and not getting too anxious to place the trade, the trap was set for that 1,2,3 movement. Price did provide a big movement down the next day, when a smaller bar would have been preferred, however patience was needed not to pull the trigger and wait.

The 22nd and 23rd provided us with upward movement back towards the VI and on the 26th price moved DOWN towards the trap. We had confirmation on the MACD and BINGO the movement on the 27th triggered the trap and the trade was entered.

It has currently given us 150 pips of profit. CHING CHING














On Thursday night we had Jordan Belfort the "Wolf of Wall Street" in Birmingham UK, giving a 2hour talk. It was an interesting 2 hours listening to the mans story, I will tell you more next week.

Please remember to do your own analysis before entering any trade.

Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Some you lose, Some you win !

Good Evening / Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = USDJPY : Day chart below.

Hello everyone, thank you to those that found looking at where I went wrong on my trade entry of the AUD & NZD in the last post. I do not intend to make a habit of this as it can become costly, however if we all learn from it, we move forward with our education. Both crosses have continued to pull back deeper which would have given greater losses than the calculated risk I was happy to take. Remember "Money Management" is a vital part of trading and you do not want to be trading with greater than 4% risk (2% would be ideal)

With my trend trading, we have had plenty of oppertunities of breakouts since Xmas, even if some have been false signals. You will never get it right 100% of the time, just like you will never guess the "Top or Bottom" of a move. It is the movement or power we are looking for which will give the move some momentum.

Let us look at another trade I am currently in, the JPY in a DAY chart.













You can clearly see we have had a "Downwards" trend since mid 2007, with the VI together with a trendline giving resistance from above. Now lets look closer.













Price has tested the top resistance line, which has VI following in tandem in a classic manner. This has been illustrated in the insert, where we test resistance, pullback and then retest our resistance again. This time after the double top, price drops away and when it goes below the pullback we have a textbook entry to go short, with a stop just above resistance. I have drawn a couple of support lines that could test us on the way down. Not also the change in the MACD.

How many of you are in this trade, which has over 100 pips profit since entry ?

Please remember to do your own analysis before entering any trade.

Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Down, but not out !

Good Evening / Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = AUDUSD : Day chart below.

Hello everybody, I hope you all had a good break away from the screens for a couple of days and had a chance to reflect on last weeks results.

Last Wednesday I was stopped out of 6 positions on the day which tried hard to effect my psyche, however all was not lost. Some of those positions were multiple on crosses and a couple were winning single trades, either way I do not like giving back in one hand what I gained in the other. Added to this as a "Trend" trader I like my trades to continue for a longer time period.

Tonight I want to look at one of the crosses I lost on, and reflect on the eagerness to get into the trade early can bite you, when patience would reward you. I had been in both the AUD & NZD previously in their uptrend and was awaiting them to return to their uptrend after a recent deep pull-back.













I have indicated the trend and resistance on the above chart and you will see the trend in force from the beginning of 2009.

The following chart looks closer at where I entered the trade incorrectly and patience would have kept me out of the trade and the cross remaining on my watchlist. This would have prevented myself from having losers in two crosses as the NZD also performed similar.














Trying to be too eager resulted in my taking the RED resistance line as a signal to break, which would indicate a likely return to the uptrend. Entry provide a short term profit before price fell away and presented me a loss after being stopped out.

The correct line should have been the BLUE line, which had been used numerous times previous and price NEVER would have triggered the trade using my ESLT. Furthermore we are now at 50% retracement, a key Fib level, which could see price return to attack it's previous highs and its uptrend.

This cross remains on the watch list for confirmation and use of the ESLT on the BLUE line may trigger a further entry.

I do hope you learn from my mistake and remember to do your own analysis before entering any trade.

Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

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Recap and the Swissy.

Good evening all,

Hope you are having a good week, and I thought I would give a quick recap first on the Euro and Aussie trades mentioned recently which are doing quite well and need management if you are in these trades whilst the Yen is still toying with the flag scenario mentioned Sunday although it is still looking for the short.

Tonights chart is of the CHF, for a possible longer term trade as the higher timeframes are showing 123 bottom characteristics, but as can be seen the daily has been trending down for a while, but has also reached a fibonacci reversal area late November,and has since been moving up.

There is convergence on the daily but price has also reacted to this and so await the DT , V.I. and figure cluster to be broke convincingly before an entry here as this could be a longer term trade should the correct entry be followed, with the due confluences.

As always please ensure to do your own analysis before trading.

Charts courtesy of AdvancedGet.

Good luck.

Clayton Farnworth.

Falling JPY

Good Evening / Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = USDJPY : Day chart below.

Welcome to the week and I hope all on the other side of the pond had a great holiday celebrating MLK Day.

On my last post I told you one of the trades in my basket was the GBPCAD, which stopped me out with no loss due to my trade management system. I have since re entered this trade on a short trade which is in a marginal loss at present, but it is early days yet.

Tonight I would like to look at another one of my current trades and that is the JPY which you will see from tonight chart is in a nice steady down trend. You will also notice how important the VI is playing with the price.

Price has remained closely linked to the VI and has found resistance of late, Yes the price did go outside the drawn trading channels, but this could have been a fake break out or double top and we also have a RN.

Indicators are "Bearish" and a move down could be on the cards. Please make your own analysis before making any trades.














Using our ESLT, I am Short on this trade, entering at 90.722

Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

Follow our other blogs
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The Aussie Dollar and recap.

Hello all,

Tonight I want to recap on the Euro, the week before last's chosen currency pair for the week and also the JPY from last week and then to show you an interesting set-up on the AUD.

The EUR, I mentioned favouring a short and said I was a confluence short, but there is still the V.I. to deal with so continue to watch this and trade at your discretion.

The JPY is currently in DD territory for a short but with the short term trend still up but everything said last week still stands and a short trade could be favourable, although watch the outcome of the possible bullish flag forming and await an confirmation before trading.

Tonights chart is of the AUD and is in an interesting position which you will have to decide on.
Fridays close stood less than 200 pips south of 2009's high, and although the short term trend is down the medium and long term trends are up.

However, mid Novembers 09 high hit a fibonacci reversal area and saw a subsequent 600 pip plus drop, and now price stands at a fibonacci reversal area of that fibonacci reversal area with another 123 pattern formation and a candle formation on Friday.

Confluences are building for a reversal but it would be a trade against the trends and so more emphasis needs to be placed on getting a good entry point, should the relevant basket of confluences occur.
On the other hand, should it break this area north then there is possible strength to the upside, we shall have to wait and see.

As always please ensure to do your own analysis before taking any trades.

Charts courtesy of AdvancedGet.

Good luck.

Clayton Farnworth.

GBPCAD Stopped Out.

Good Evening / Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = GBPCAD : Day chart below.

Hello everybody, I hope you are enjoying the snow whilst we have it. It is amazing how everything in the country comes to a halt over 6 inches of the white stuff. (UK that is.) With the internet not effected, our trading continues as normal. I had mentioned on Monday that we would be looking at the 4 trades I was currently in. One of those the GBPCAD was stopped out last night, so I have chosen this to see why and when we entered etc.

I explained that I am comfortable trading medium to long term using the DAY charts for my analysis and each weekend I look at and replace likely entry's for the coming week. Any good candidates goes onto my watch list. As we will see if we miss a trade, then no need to chase the trade, be patient and await the signal to enter.













With the VI patrolling the sky's above price, we were presented with a double top kissing the VI. This started to produce lower highs and lows, resulting in a downward trading channel. We already had a strong support below and price soon started to act with a deal of predictability.

We will never know the ultimate top or bottom of a move, so despite missing the shorting opportunity at 1. , we waited and using our ESLT on the next reversal we were able to enter the trade with our limit order set for calculated profits of around 500 pips.

Once our limit order secured profits, we were then in the trade risk free, only for price to rise and stop us out. Should our stop loss have been set higher ?
That is for you to decide depending on YOUR rules.

There might be a further opportunity to come ?

Until then remember "The market is always right"

Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

Follow our other blogs
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The Japanese Yen

Good evening Dynamic Traders,

Tonight update is going to be a very quick one due to something else I have to do.

Firstly may I welcome John back to the blogging forum and I am glad you have recovered.

The JPY could be reverting back to its downtrend after tagging resistance at its trendline and V.I.

However I am one confluence short and so I am keeping it on my watchlist.

Charts courtesy of AdvancedGet.

Good luck.

Clayton Farnworth.

What's the rush ?

Good Evening / Morning Dynamic Traders

"Better to have tried and failed, than not tried at all"

Cross = EURAUD, GBPAUD, GBPCAD, USDCAD :

Hello everyone and Happy New Year to you all, I had been awaiting the change to the "New" site before posting, but have decided to get cracking now.

I hope your New Year of trading has got off to as good a start as my own and this year I hope to share with you my trading gains and losses. I will not be explaining anything too complicated as we all are at different levels of our "Trading" education and you must have the final say as to whether or not you enter a trade.

Trading is not a race, which is the trap a lot of new traders fall into. It is a strategy that will reward you well, if you continue to learn and follow the rules. Those of you who follow our blog's will be aware of our pattern of trading and will be used to the type of language used.

Those of you who want to learn more of our precise strategies will need to contact and request the relevant information, places are usually very limited.

Sitting in front of a screen 6+ hours a day watching charts move and my emotions changing constantly and gaining 20 pips or losing 75 pips is not my idea of fun, so "Trend Trading" from DAY charts is my preferred way.

The 4 crosses at the top of the screen are 4 of my trades which currently are 17-1800 pips to the better. The USDCAD has been open since the 04/11/09. ALL are SHORT and I update 30 mins a day at 2300hrs. Would you be happy or able to handle those rewards at £10 per pip. I suggest you place "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas on your reading list and start to understand the mechanics of the mind.

Over the next couple of posts we will look at why I entered those trades and see from the charts their progress.

Until then remember "The market is always right"

Trade with Passion

John Maher
Forex Analyst

Follow our other blogs
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http://www.fxcps.com/blog

The Pound Swiss Franc.

Good afternoon Dynamic Traders,

This afternoons chart for you to analyse is of the GBPCHF.

This could be in a position for a short but would be an aggressive stance for the following reasons.

It does presently stand with all short, medium and longer term trends down and the lows of November and December being broke, but the low of October has not been tested yet and is only a couple of hundred pips away.

Price is below the V.I. which is another reason for looking at the short trade as this is a criteria of the 'smart money' traders but as can be seen from the chart below price is currently channelling.

Other reasons favouring the short side are that price has broken a resistance area of 1.7000 to 1.6500 and is also in DD parameters now with RSI below 50.

As mentioned it is aggressive due to reasons mentioned above and also because MACD convergence is evident with fibonacci revesals just south clustering with extensions but this would mean a reversal of the trend and as you know this should be our friend.

Keep an eye on this and should your confluences be met act accordingly.

As always please ensure to do your own analysis before taking any trades.

Charts courtesy of AdvancedGet.

Good luck.

Clayton Farnworth.

No trade to open re Euro.

Good evening Forex Traders,

Although a good down day up to now has occurred on the Euro Dollar I am not going to put an order into the market as my elusive confluence is still evading me on this pair for my T.P., but even if it had happened I would refrain from opening a new position due to NFP tomorrow.

So apologies for not having picked an exciting currency pair to look at this week but hopefully it gave an insight into my thought process, and did highlight that things do not always happen when we want them too and that the market does what it wants to when it wants to in its own time, but hopefully tomorrow or next week will see direction.

Enjoy your weekend.

Clayton Farnworth.

Patience is a Virtue.

Good evening all,

Having difficulties again so just a quick update.

Price action has again not offered any good conviction and therefore there has not been any good direction, but as NFP is out at the end of the week this could be the catalyst needed and we shall possible have to await this, hence todays title.

Price has broke both trendlines shown but is just hanging around the V.I.

However the GBPAUD mentioned last night has given a nice move down and another chart to look at tonight is the Loonie as this is in a downtrend but at present is showing signs of a possible 123 and so for the continuation trade south the best way to trade (i.e. safest ) would be to wait for a break of the mid October low.

As always please ensure to do your own analysis before taking any trade.

Charts courtesy of AdvancedGet.

Good luck.

Clayton Farnworth.

Not much change on the Euro.

Hello all,

Well after saying I was favouring a short trade on Sunday for this weeks chosen currency of the Euro price proceeded to jump up on Monday.

However as things stand at present I am still favouring the short and the short term trend is still down and the FB is still showing at the bottom of GetStochastics and at the time of writing this draft todays candle is showing a doji formation although on looking at it now whilst trying to access the blogger it has come down further, and a possible flag pattern is possibly forming.

As said Sunday I am still waiting for another confluence to verify me placing an order in the market by ESLT.

The Euro is currently still in a non trading position therefore for me and so I will not take any trade until it is verified.

Possible further upside movement could happen first with the Get Elliot Wave count showing at the moment.

Also please take a look at the GBPAUD for a short but bear in mind the low of October which should be broke appropriately in accordance with your teachings.

As always please ensure to do your own analysis before taking any trades.

Have fun,

Clayton Farnworth.

Happy New Decade and the Euro.

Good afternoon Dynamic Traders,

May I take this opportunity to wish our mentors, bloggers and readers all best for this new trading week, of a new trading year, of a new trading decade, and to hope it is a very prosperous one and positive one for us all.

As stated in a recent post, this year I am going to change the posts a little sometimes by following one currency through a week but then also revert back to the standard proceedure and post about different ones through the week.

To start off, I am looking at the EUR which at present is in a short trade mentioned from the 13th December which has not been closed out despite its recent pullback. However at present is not in a position to enter due to its consolidation phase.

Price is currently hanging around the V.I. and the shorter term trend is down whilst the medium and longer term trends are still up, but price has broken the trendline of the upmove from March of this year and so with this and price having closed below the V.I. and after retesting the former resistance and other confluences including the Get Stochastics and RSI I am looking to short this at present should I get one more reason to add to my already growing events,until confluences change to indicate otherwise and am looking for an appropriate entry with ESLT. However as the week goes on my opinion can change in accordance with the markets and so I am now in the waiting / patient period of trading which everyone has to endure.

As always please ensure to do your own analysis before trading.

Charts courtesy of AdvancedGet.

Good luck.

Clayton Farnworth.